The Middle East During 2021
An Overview of the past to anticipate the future
During this year several ME economies started their paths towards recovery, despite the persisting pandemic and the drop in oil prices. Will they continue their momentum? Photo source: gfmag.com/.
Much has occurred during the past years. From armed escalations, economic sanctions, social unrest, to the pandemic, the Middle East became mired in a series of challenges. 2021 was an epic year; it is the period where most countries demonstrated to the world their resiliency and their ability to enact reforms which allowed them to modernize their economies. However, other countries remain to be in a deplorable situation as their leaders have yet to check their actions and inactions.
1- The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt, A Prelude to a Great Power
Public investment in Egypt has grown by 535% over the past six years, a reflection of the government’s efforts to boost the economy by attracting foreign investors through ambitious development projects. Source: https://cairoscene.com/.
Throughout the past years, Egypt has grown exponentially. Unlike other countries, it was able to withstand the pandemic, intact macroeconomic reforms, and improve fiscal accounts to the point it has sustained its ability to attract an enormous amount of inbound investment: During the past 6 years, Egypt’s public investment alone grew by 535% increasing to a total of 59 billion USD. Its comparatively responsible way it chose to spend its money on public infrastructure made it a very attractive destination for investors who want to achieve long term gains.
On the social front, Egypt was able to reduce the poverty level to its lowest levels in 20 years. According to CAPMAS, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the poverty rates in Egypt fell to 29.7 percent during the 2019-2020 fiscal year — a decline of 2.8 percent from the 32.5 percent recorded in 2017-2018. Moreover, extreme poverty in Egypt decreased nationwide to 4.5 percent in 2019-2020, down from 6.2 percent in 2017-2018. The agency noted however, that something must be done about the growing family sizes in Egypt since they seem to be directly correlated with poverty levels. Many families opt to have more children since this is the only way they will get sufficient social protection as a source of income.
Nevertheless, Egypt’s dream as an economic power is more or less guaranteed in the future. This is evident not only in its success at home but also its capability to invest in other countries that need higher degrees of development. One instance is Tanzania, where it was able to complete the Egyptian Industrial City in the Kigamboni district on the border of the city of Dar es Salaam worth one billion-dollars. If Egypt continues to operate in this manner, we might be witnessing the birth of a major regional power.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-284,024 corona confirmed cases
-227,612 recovered
-16,487 deaths
Jordan’s Transition to a Green Economy
Jordan has positive prospects waiting for it in 2022 thanks to a set of reforms. Source: Go Aqaba.
Years ago, Jordan stumbled over a series of unresolved domestic issues that made it quite difficult for leaders to take sound decisions. To make matters worse, the pandemic arrived crippling any attempt to rejuvenate the battered economy. Nevertheless, after a series of government reshuffles and reforms, the personal intervention of his Majesty King Abdulla II and the successes of the services and industrial sectors, things started to change for Jordan. Nowadays, the country is back on track and even made its intent clear in moving towards a Green Economy. This step alone attracted investors and current partners, prompting an increase in inbound investment into the country. So far, the IMF remains committed to supporting Jordan for 2022 to drive economic recovery, support investment and protect jobs. For instance, the organization recently released $335.2 million from $1.5 billion loan program to support social protection and job retention. As such, Jordan’s economy is set to grow by 2.7% next year and the current account deficit is expected to decline to less than 5 per cent in 2022. Compared to the upheaval that Jordan went through, Jordan is reemerging with better prospects.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-764,983 corona confirmed cases
-746,960 recovered
-9,963 deaths
Iraq: Oil Production Recovery and Future Prospects
Iraq can expect a better economy next year, thanks to its oil revenues. Source: Zawya.com.
After all the economic and political turmoil, Iraq has been through the past year, its economy is finally recovering. According to the IMF, Iraq can expect a recovering period due to the increasing oil prices and easing COVID-19 restrictions. Iraq’s oil sector, however, is not the only aspect that’s going to give the country a push. In fact, the country’s non-oil real gross domestic product is expected to rebound by 12 percent during a time when the government is starting to reduce inflation from 7.2%. Moreover, its strengthening of ties with Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE is attracting a lot of investors and allowing to diversify its economy. The IMF, after revising the country’s performance, went on to claim the fiscal and external current account balances are expected to improve significantly. Nevertheless, it stressed on the importance of taking advantage of the increase in oil prices to strengthen its public finances. It went on to claim that Iraq should prioritize civil service reform to increase the public sector’s efficiency and reduce losses in the electricity sector. Either way, Iraq can expect better economic opportunities, as the GDP is expected to increase by 3.6 per cent in 2021 and 10.5 per cent in 2022.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-1,552,648 corona confirmed cases
-1,411,029 recovered
-18,287 deaths
Lebanon: Corruption, deterioration, and transitioning to a failed state
For Lebanese leaders, this is how a ‘Dignified’ life looks like, source: December 12, 2019.
While basically every country in the region boasts some positive outcomes, Lebanon continues to impress observers by its backward trajectory. As a result of the dollar crisis, people have no more real money in the banks and therefore all their entire savings which they have worked for their entire lives have disappeared. Meanwhile, the Lebanese elite managed to smuggle money they had stolen over the years to offshore accounts. According to the UN, 78% of people living in Lebanon are below the poverty line as a result of the economic meltdown. Yet such a figure is negligible, as long as the great Lebanese leaders or forefathers remain to be the guardians and their egos remain unscathed. Organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank, have refused to help Lebanon unless certain reforms that put a lid on corruption are set in place. However, the same leaders do not want money that they can’t steal.
To make matters worse, the Beirut Blast investigation has yet to come to a conclusion because of political interference: One judge was directly pulled out from the investigation because of delving into ‘sensitive matters’. As for the second judge who replaced him and who seems to have reached the same conclusion, he and his family receive death-threats. The explosion, that was the most powerful non-nuclear detonation in the world, was nothing more than an accident whose details can be swept under the rug. As previously mentioned in one overview, the 218 people that perished are nothing more than collateral damage of doing business in Lebanon. After all, non of their sons, daughters, or cherished ones were affected by the blast.
As such, over the past year or two, nothing much has transpired except the severe deterioration of the economy and the gradual illimination of the state. As for 2022, it hides further suffering and misery when social support systems such as families, religious communities, and humanitarian organizations are financially exhausted.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-555,302 corona confirmed cases
-536,111 recovered
-7,892 deaths
Palestine, An Economy set to Improve
President Mahmoud Abbas, pictured at a meeting with journalists in the occupied West Bank town of Ramallah, met on Dec. 14 with Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to discuss the Palestinian economy. - ABBAS MOMANI/AFP via Getty Images.
Throughout the past year, Palestine struggled with the corona pandemic and Israeli military skirmishes. To make matters worse, the ramifications of former President Donald Trump, of cutting UNRWA support and minimizing assistance to Palestine, just made it difficult for Palestinian Authorities to respond. Nevertheless, other countries have intervened through various economic endeavors to stabilize the socioeconomic situation and to avoid a humanitarian crisis. Today, Palestine is looking forward for an improvement its relationship with the United States, especially with the meeting between Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Analysts view this as a restart of economic ties which the previous administration abandoned. Moreover, its recent participation in the Expo 2020 in Dubai, presented itself as “a deeply historic land with ancient buildings”, adding that “along with its burgeoning tourism, it has a busy manufacturing sector and there are many opportunities for investment”. This statement alone might as well foreshadow what prospects Palestine sees in the distance with its renewed relationships and with a US administration less keen on Israeli wishes. With all the positive developments taking place, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) projected a 7% increase in GDP.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-316,088 corona confirmed cases
-311,526 recovered
-3,599 deaths
Syria, A Rocky Road to Salvation
This photo shows people walking along a street on Wednesday, in Damascus, the capital of Syria where Syrian lawmakers approved a draft budget for 2022 of $5.3 billion (AFP photo).
The easing of the armed conflict in Syria is alone a main indicator that things are turning for the better. The resumption of diplomatic ties with the Gulf/Arab countries is also another. However, such two outcomes came after years of destruction, bloodshed, sanctions, and finally, the pandemic, which have incapacitated the country. Till today, there are about 6.8 million Syrian refugees and asylum seekers scattered around the world who won’t be returning any time soon. Even until now, the socioeconomic situation in the country is dire as the Syrian currency continues to devaluate while oil prices increase. Most recently, the Syrian government has increased the price of subsidized petrol sold via the smart card system by 46 percent. The government attempted to improve living conditions in the country by adding an amount of 30% to the wages of civil and military employees and 25% to the wages of the retired civil and military personnel. The very next day however, the Ministry of Health raised the prices of all medicines by 30%. To make things even worse, such events caused the Syrian currency to devaluate even further.
Syria is yet to face many hurdles, however, the 2024 energy conference which is set to gather members of OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) foreshadows how things will evolve in the upcoming years. The formation of a less aggressive American administration in the White House gave Arab countries the freedom to engage Syria diplomatically. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are becoming more and more involved in projects in the region. As such, Syria seems now to be a promising destination on their lists. As for the sanctions which are still active or which still being slapped on the country, diplomats expect countries to loosen them. In short, Syria is still not out of the woods, but Syrians can look forward to a better future.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-25,877 corona confirmed cases
-21,948 recovered
-1,906 deaths
Cyprus, Future Economic Prosperity
With the help of the EU and China, Cyprus will fast-track it Green Economy Projects. April 2021. https://www.cyprusprofile.com/.
Throughout the past year, Cyprus made tremendous strides in facing the pandemic and standing up to Turkey’s expansionistic ambitions. It not only was able to inoculate most of its population, it was able to maintain comparatively good socioeconomic indicators despite the crushing effect of the pandemic. Benefitting from the successes it achieved in the early pandemic period, it is now moving towards a Green Economy to achieve self-sustainability in a world that is starting to sink in an energy crisis. As a result, the approach was lauded by Cyprus’s partners in the EU which will be taking part in financing this great endeavor. The EU, however, was not the only entity to be impressed with its achievements. The giant China, eying the country as a potential strategic hub for its Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI), came into the mix and signed a strategic partnership with it. As such, China will pump a lot of funds to work on large-scale infrastructure projects to open new trade links between China and the Eurasia-Africa regions. Moreover, China will be also investing in Green Energy projects and will take part in the digital transformation Cyprus is trying to achieve. Now that Cyprus has backing from competing geo-political opponents, it can expect heavier investment.
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-97,718 corona confirmed cases
-77,047 recovered
-401 deaths
2- The Refugee Situation
Egypt
The UNHCR, commended the Government of Egypt for reiterating its commitment to expand services available to refugees and asylum-seekers in the health sector and ensure continuity of existing opportunities in the education sector at the High-Level Officials meeting, 14-15 December 2021. Also, UNHCR stated “in terms of health, the Egyptian government has been very generous in including refugees and asylum seekers in the national response plan to confront COVID-19, as well as in both health care and vaccination plans on an equal basis with Egyptians despite the limited number of vaccines available.” [1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 672,804 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of December.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for December, are distributed as follows:
-199,069 in Amman Governorate (29.6 %)
-168,530 in Mafraq Governorate (25.1%)
-136,515 in Irbid Governorate (20.3%)
-98,523 in Zarqa Governorate (14.7%)
-17,965 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)
-13,398 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,299 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,554 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,407 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-6,469 in Ajlun Governorate (1.0%)
-3,786 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,686 in Tafilah Governorate (0.3%)
In its latest country brief, the WFP stated that 867,099 beneficiaries were reached in November 2021 through cash-based transfers, education, and agricultural support. [2]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 252,591 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of December, are distributed as follows:
-127,966 in Erbil (50.7%)
-85,889 in Dahuk (34.0%)
-32,040 in Sulaymaniyah (12.7%)
-1,454 in Anbar (0.6%)
-5,242 in other areas (2.2%)[3]
According to a report by USAID released at the end of its Fiscal Year (2022), the organization declared that the majority of Iraq’s remaining IDP population is experiencing protracted displacement, with more than 90 percent displaced for three or more years.[4]
OCHA, in its annual report concluded that over 1 million IDPs and returnees in Iraq remain without at least one key identity or civil document.[5]
Lebanon
[Please note that this statistics section is yet not updated by UNHCR for December]
Since November, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 844,056.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-329,223 in Bekaa (39.0%)
-229,123 in North Lebanon (27.1%)
-194,878 in Beirut (23.1%)
-90,832 in South Lebanon (10.8%)[6]
The Monaco Red Cross released €25,000 in emergency aid to address the prolonged humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.[7]
The Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA) implemented a capacity-building project for farmers in Beqaa, by providing tractors to 200 families in North Beqaa.[8]
In light of the challenges that Palestinians are facing in Lebanon as a result of the previous administration’s budget cuts to UNRWA, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres visited the Lydda Co-Ed School of the UNRWA in Tripoli and promised that their situation will improve and not to lose hope.[9]
Syria
Syria’s overall humanitarian situation remains dire and its worsening economic situation has exacerbated the country’s already difficult food crisis. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and approximately 12.4 million people—nearly 60 percent of Syria’s population—are now considered food insecure, representing a 57 percent increase since 2019.”. [10]
Levels of hunger and poverty have escalated as the economy has continued to implode, with 14 million people in need, the highest number since the conflict began.
Despite no shift in conflict front lines, continuing violence against civilians and systematic human rights abuses have been monitored - including against women and girls.[11]
The humanitarian situation in the northwest of Syria is particularly dismal. According to OCHA, 2.8 million people in the region are currently displaced, including approximately two million people who live in temporary camps.[12]
In Syria’s northeast, the humanitarian situation is precarious, especially given the historically low water level in the Euphrates River, which has contributed to power outages, reduced access to clean drinking water, loss of crops, and an increase in water-borne diseases. According to recent media reports, the water level at one of the two main dams providing electricity in the northeast is decreasing at a rate that could see it lose all functionality by the end of December, threatening the well-being of some three to five million people.[13]
Cyprus
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres recommends renewal of Unficyp’s mandate for another six months, as he criticized the government over its treatment of asylum seekers.[14]
After more than 80 people tested positive for COVID-19 at the Pournara migrant camp, Cypriot health authorities have moved hundreds of migrants to another location. The living conditions at Pournara had been denounced by MPs after a visit during December.[15]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] OCHA, Relief Web, https://reliefweb.int/report/turkey/thanks-egypt-thousands-refugees-are-able-access-health-and-education-service
[2] OCHA, Dec 16, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/wfp-jordan-country-brief-november-2021
[3] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[4] OCHA, Dec 22, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-complex-emergency-fact-sheet-1-fiscal-year-fy-2022
[5] OCHA, Nov 29 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-humanitarian-bulletin-october-2021
[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[7] OCHA, Dec 23, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-monaco-red-cross-releases-25000-emergency-aid
[8] OCHA, Dec 23, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/t-ka-implemented-agricultural-development-project-beqaa-valley-lebanon
[9] OCHA, Dec 21, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/un-secretary-general-guterres-palestine-refugees-lebanon-do-not-lose-hope-enar
[10] Security council report, 30 Nov
[11] OCHA, Dec 30, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/united-nations-special-envoy-syria-geir-o-pedersen-briefing-security-9
[12] Security Council, Nov. 30, 2021, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2021-12/syria-38.php
[13] Security Council, Dec 30, 2021, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2021-12/syria-38.php
[14] Cyprus Mail, Jan 1, 2022, https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/01/01/un-chief-censures-cyrus-over-treatment-of-asylum-seekers/
[15] Info Migrants, December 23, 2021, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/37426/cyprus-hundreds-transferred-after-coronavirus-outbreak-at-overcrowded-migrant-camp